Turbulence in aviation is a frequently encountered and sometimes uncomfortable phenomenon during passenger flights. The increase in turbulence is an important issue that has attracted the attention of both passengers and the aviation industry in recent years. In this article, the reasons for the increase in turbulence and its effects on aviation will be examined.
What is Turbulence?
Turbulence is a phenomenon that occurs as a result of air currents moving in an irregular and chaotic manner. When planes encounter these irregular air currents, they are shaken by sudden rise and fall movements. Turbulence can arise from several different sources:
Convective turbulence: It occurs due to local differences in air temperatures.
Mountain wave turbulence: It is caused by waves created by winds passing over mountains.
Net wind shear turbulence: It occurs as a result of sudden changes in wind speeds and directions at different altitudes.
Clear air turbulence (CAT): Occurs for no apparent reason, especially at high altitudes.
Reasons for the Increase in Turbulence
Climate Change
Climate change is one of the most important factors in increasing turbulence. Global warming increases temperature and pressure differences in the atmosphere, leading to stronger and more variable air currents. This situation especially causes clear air turbulence (CAT) to increase. Increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere can cause jet streams to become more wavy and irregular. Research predicts that turbulence may double between 2050 and 2080.
Jet Currents and Wind Shear
Jet streams are air currents located in the upper layers of the atmosphere, generally at an altitude of 9-12 kilometers, and moving at very high speeds. Global warming can affect the speed and direction of these currents, causing more turbulence. Particularly on transatlantic flights, changes in these jet streams lead to more frequent and severe turbulence events.
Increasing Air Traffic
Growth in the aviation industry and the increasing number of flights results in more aircraft being in the air and an increased likelihood of being exposed to turbulence. Particularly in areas with heavy air traffic, aircraft flying at close distances to each other may increase the risk of turbulence. This applies to both commercial flights and private and cargo flights.
Effects of Turbulence on Aviation
Safety and Passenger Comfort
Although turbulence does not pose a direct threat to the safety of aircraft, it poses a serious risk to the safety and comfort of passengers and crew. Severe turbulence events can cause injury to passengers, disruption of cabin crew and interruption of in-flight services. Additionally, tremors experienced during turbulence can create fear and anxiety among passengers.
Fuel Consumption and Operational Costs
Increasing turbulence may require aircraft to change their routes. Choosing longer routes to avoid turbulence may increase fuel consumption and therefore operational costs. From an economic perspective, this can become a significant cost element for airline companies.
Flight Planning and Delays
Increased turbulence can make flight planning more complicated. Pilots and flight planners must constantly monitor weather reports and forecasts to avoid areas of turbulence. This may lead to changes in flight routes and sometimes delays. Delays may negatively affect airport operations and passenger satisfaction.
The increase in turbulence in aviation is caused by many factors, including climate change, jet streams and increased air traffic. This increase has serious effects on both safety and passenger comfort, as well as operational costs and flight planning. Airlines and aviation authorities continue to develop advanced weather monitoring systems and flight planning strategies to manage this situation and minimize the negative effects of turbulence. In the future, weather conditions are expected to become even more complex, requiring the aviation industry to increase its efforts to deal with turbulence.
Resources:
Williams, P. D., “Increased light, moderate, and severe clear-air turbulence in response to climate change,” Nature Climate Change, 2017.
Storer, R. L., & Van Den Heever, S. C., “Microphysical Processes Evident in Aerosol-Corrupted Thunderstorm Simulations,” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 2013.
Kim, J., & Chun, H.-Y., “A Study of Upper-Tropospheric Turbulence in the Vicinity of the Jet Stream,” Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2011.
ICAO, “Global Air Transport Outlook to 2030 and Trends to 2040,” International Civil Aviation Organization, 2018.
European Aviation Safety Agency, “Annual Safety Review 2020,” EASA, 2020.